Republicans Hold Largest Early Lean Ahead of Midterm Elections in 40 Years

Warner Todd Hutson November 15, 2021

472 1 minute read

Four women of various demographics, young blonde woman in front, filling in ballots and casting votes in booths at polling station, US flag on wall at back. Focus on booth signage

The GOP has the largest polling advantage going into the 2022 elections than it has had since the Reagan years in 1981, according to a new poll.

You’ll recall that between 1980 and 1984, Ronald Reagan pretty much swept the entire United States, winning majorities that few presidents had seen in decades — and few since.

But now, the GOP is on track with the generic ballot to equal where the party stood during the height of the Reagan years.

“As things stand, if the midterm elections were today, 51 percent of registered voters say they’d support the Republican candidate in their congressional district, 41 percent the Democrat,” reads a press release from Langer Research, which conducted the poll for ABC News/Washington Post. “That’s the biggest lead for the Republicans in 110 ABC/Post polls to ask this question since November 1981. Indeed, it’s only the second time the GOP has held a statistically significant advantage (the other was +7 points in January 2002) and the ninth time it’s held any numerical edge at all.”

The polling for those who identify as Republicans and Democrats have not really changed a whole lot over the last few elections. But it is the independents who are swinging the polling to the GOP. And that is where the Democrats are coming up major losers.

According to the poll, independents are pulling for the GOP by a 50-32 percent margin. That is huge!

New WaPo poll: Biden approval sinks to 38% (new low), GOP leads in generic ballot by TEN points (51 to 41) among registered voters. https://t.co/teNHqtoTsR

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 14, 2021

The failing Biden economy has many voters turning to the GOP, as well. 70 percent of respondents said that they felt the economy is going in the wrong direction. That is up from 58 percent from a poll taken in the spring.

Biden’s falling approval rating is also likely dragging the Democrats down. Biden is down between 48 and 41 percent, depending on which poll you are looking at. This is some of the lowest approvals of any modern president.

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